Short Market Report 27.01.22Short Market Report
Market is playing the pull back rally as we had discussed in our last market report. So, what happened today? Huge shorts were built yesterday and those positions were squared off at the start resulting in huge gap down. The indices took another nose dive few mins later and the down move continued till Nifty reached yesterday's low and then bounced back; and my God what a rally that was. Few of the forum members were confident that nifty will reach 15900 levels but I have been saying something for quite sometime. People would buy cow dung if it's available at a discount. That is what we witnessed today. Even though indicators didn't show oversold but RSI was not forming new low and people started building long positions resulting in this massive short covering rally. Call Writers got trapped due to over confidence that rally will not happen. I don't blame them as I have had losing days due to this thought process. As noted previously Bank nifty was stronger than NIfty and PSU banks out performed everything.
Worrying issue is Nifty IT and how much further it can fall. if you are holding IT stocks, continue to hold or keep buying in small quantities like SIP. You can make huge gains in one year's time
All depends on how Nifty will respect the channel bottom along which nifty has been trading since 2020 drop. The last downfall tested the channel bottom once at 16400 and then we had a straight forward rally till 18300. Now for two consecutive days we have tested this channel bottom. I am not expecting a drop before a decent pull back but you should keep in mind that this is likely to happen in near future.
Budget theme has been playing for some time and two sectors you should watch closely are PSU banks and Defence
For tomorrow, gap down is again likely but I am not sure. if gap down happens, will be a small one. Expect some profit booking which may result into a red day. Some veteran analysts are confident that 17500 is coming
Trading Ideas: If rally has to continue, you can go with 17500 CE and 38400 CE. But be very careful as things may turn around very fast due to volatility.
Stocks to Watch for tomorrow
PNB
TATA POWER
IDFC FIRST BANK
NALCO
Search in ideas for "IDFC FIRST"
Positional Opportunity in IDFC First BankGo Long above 53.6 for Targets of 62.9 with SL 44.3
Reasons to go Long :
1. On a daily timeframe if we draw the Fibonacci retracement tool from recent swing low (point A) to recent swing high (point B) then we see stock took support from 0.5 Fibonacci level.
2. A bullish chart pattern, Double Bottom (W pattern) is formed around 0.5 Fibonacci level.
3. Also the stock gave a trendline breakout.
Long Term Opportunity in IDFC FirstGo Long above 52.2 for Targets of 63.65, 75.9, and 86.55 with SL 40.75
Reasons to go Long :
1. On a Monthly timeframe if we draw the Fibonacci retracement tool from recent swing low (point A) to recent swing high (point B) then we see stock took support from 0.5 Fibonacci level.
2. Also a bullish candlestick pattern Bullish Harami (marked with orange color) is formed around 0.5 Fibonacci level.
3. In addition to this the stock gave Trendline breakout on a Monthly timeframe.
Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 15-11-21SWING TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 15-11-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan.
Some readers feel that I am simply listing down several scrips so that if they go up I can claim so. This is not the case - I am not here to score any points. I am sharing my weekly analysis and if you like it, read it and if you do not agree, I am fine with that.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
Nifty 100
Nifty 200
Consumption
FMCG
IT
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS - Nifty Spot at 18102.75
Adani Ports
Asian Paints
Britannia
HCL Tech
Hindalco
Nestle
TCS
Wipro
IDFC First Bank
Damia Bharat
Force Motors
Hind Petro
ICICI Pru Life
IRCTC
Jubl Food
Naukri
Sanofi
Nazara
As compared to the last week there are fewer opportunities as many of the sectors have already moved up during the week and some have become weak during the week. This means that as and when there is further buying in these sectors, Nifty may get a push-up.
I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Here is the Video Link:
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
14-11--21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 08-11-21SWING TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 08-11-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS - Nifty Spot at 17916
Asian Paints
Britannia
HCL Tech
Infosys
Nestle
NTPC
SBI Life
Tata Consumer
IDFC First Bank
Abbott
Angel Broking
Mangalam Cements
Mirza International
Orient Hotels
Tata Coffee
TRF
Accelya
Bayer Cropscience
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
Value 20
Consumption
CPSE
Dividend Opportunities
FMCG
IT
Metals
Next 50
As compared to the last week there are fewer opportunities as Nifty has become very volatile and has wild swings leaning towards the downside and is facing stiff resistance on the way up.
I am going to be cautious and would wait till Nifty ends above 18000 as until then we may keep witnessing high volatility and big swings.
I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Here is the Video Link:
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
7-11--21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 20-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 20-9-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 20-9-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
NIFTY WEEKLY CHART
ADANI PORTS
BAJAJ AUTO
BPCL
HDFCBANK
HEROMOTOCO
CHOLA FIN
DHANUKA
FORCE MOTORS
GM BREWERIES
HINDPETRO
INDUS TOWER
MOTILALOFS
PAGE IND
SPICEJET
VENKY’S
WABAG
HDFC AMC
VAKRANGEE
COAL INDIA
DCW
IDEA
IDFC FIRST BANK
ITC
There are plenty of opportunities out there even after NIFTY hitting 17700+. So, please review your fund position, have a look at the indicator that fits you well, and plan for investing / trading per your risk appetite.
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
AUTO
BANK NIFTY
MEDIA
PRIVATE BANKS
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
19-9-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 13-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 13-9-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check it out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 13-9-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
BAJAJ AUTO
COAL INDIA
KOTAK BANK
SBIN
SHREE CEMENT
IDFC FIRST BANK
CHALET
DAAWAT
DHANUKA
GATI
GIC HOUSING
RAYMOND
VENKY’S
HDFC AMC
VAKRANGEE
AB CAPITAL
IDEA
ITC
REC LTD
There are plenty of opportunities out there even after NIFTY hitting 17300+. So, please review your fund position, have a look at the indicator that fits you well, and plan for investing / trading per your risk appetite.
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
AUTO
BANK NIFTY
CPSE
MEDIA
Clearly, there is a lesser number of sectors that are now offering good entry points in comparison to the earlier weeks. The reason is that either some of the sectors have witnessed retracement of price levels or many of them are way above a level from where a good RR trade could be initiated. BANK NIFTY seems to be the best bet for now.
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both the lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the set up and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
12-9-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 6-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 6-9-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check it out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 6-9-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
ADANI PORTS
BAJAJ AUTO
COAL INDIA
HERO MOTO
KOTAK BANK
ONGC
BANDHAN BANK
IDFC FIRST BANK
BOSCH
ALEMBIC PHARMA
DR REDDY
AUROPHARMA
CHALET
DAAWAT
GLENMARK
HINDPETRO
ICICIGI
KSCL
LIC HOUSING
MRF
OIL
RAYMOND
There are plenty of opportunities out there even after NIFTY hitting 17300+. So, please review your funds position, have a look at the indicator that fits you well and plan for investing / trading per your risk appetite.
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
AUTO
BANK NIFTY
COMMODITIES
CPSE
ENERGY
GROWTH
METALS
MIDCAP50
MIDCAPLIQUID
PHARMA
PSE
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both the lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
5-9-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 16-8-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 16-08-21
INTENT
This is a new series of periodical posts where I would share the scrips that I come across and find good to keep on my radar for the next trading session/s. The post may not be a daily feature as it depends on whether I am able to find some opportunities.
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check it out if any of these fit your trade plan.
Whenever possible, a corresponding video would also be shared so that the reader can look at the charts and listen to the commentary as and when needed.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 09-08-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
IDFC FIRST BANK
PNB
RBL BANK
AURO PHARMA
CHALET
DAAWAT
GM BREWERIES
ICICIGI
LIC HOUSING
MOTILAL OSWAL
SADBHAV
Even though on a weekly basis Nifty has made an ATH close, there are several scrips across sectors that have been beaten down and many are below their 200 DMA, WMA as well.
I read it both ways -
Either
There is scope for Nifty to go up further as these scrips would eventually move up.
Or
Nifty may consolidate or drift until the overall market turns bullish for several leading names as well.
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
BANK NIFTY
CPSE
ENERGY
FIN SERVICES
During the week, the universe of my stock search is limited to Nifty, Banknifty and my holdings only. I expand the base for the weekly review so you may not see many names appearing here and may see repeats as well.
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both the lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the set up and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
14-08-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NIFTY BANKNSE:BANKNIFTY
NIFTY BANK
DATE - AUG 13, 2021.
The NIFTY Bank Index comprises of the most liquid and large Indian Banking stocks. It provides investors and market intermediaries
a benchmark that captures the capital market performance of the Indian banks. The Index comprises of maximum 12 companies listed
on National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.
1. INDEX is on upper range of consolidation.
2. Charts making pattern similar to PENNANT.
3. SUPERTREND give a buy signal.
4. ALLIGATOR give a buy signal.
5. INDEX trading ABOVE MA 21/50/100/200/250/300.
6. HIGH OI in CALL & PUT at strike 36000.
7. 36300 is a BREAKOUT level of BANKNIFTY.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
1.P/E - 22.57
2.P/B - 2.85
3.Dividend Yield - 0.33
Top constituents by weightage -
1. HDFC Bank Ltd. - 27.56
2. ICICI Bank Ltd. - 22.91
3. State Bank of India - 12.42
4. Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. - 11.77
5. Axis Bank Ltd. - 11.49
6. IndusInd Bank Ltd. - 5.20
7. AU Small Finance Bank Ltd. - 2.35
8. Bandhan Bank Ltd. - 1.73
9. Federal Bank Ltd. - 1.53
10. IDFC First Bank Ltd. - 1.2
Portfolio Characteristics -
1. Methodology - Periodic Capped Free Float.
2. No. of Constituents - 12.
3. Launch Date - September 15, 2003
4. Base Date - January 01, 2000
5. Base Value - 1000.
6. Calculation Frequency - Online Daily.
7. Index Rebalancing - Semi-Annually.
Eligibility Criteria for Selection of Constituent Stocks:
i. Companies should form part of NIFTY 500 at the time of review. In case, the number of eligible stocks representing a particular
sector within NIFTY 500 falls below 10, then deficit number of stocks shall be selected from the universe of stocks ranked within top
800 based on both average daily turnover and average daily full market capitalisation based on previous six months period data used
for index rebalancing of NIFTY 500.
ii. Companies should form a part of the Banking sector.
iii. The company's trading frequency should be at least 90% in the last six months.
iv . The company should have a listing history of 6 months. A company which comes out with an IPO will be eligible for inclusion in
the index, if it fulfills the normal eligibility criteria for the index for a 3 month period instead of a 6 month period.
v. Companies that are allowed to trade in F&O segment are only eligible to be constituent of the index.
vi. Final selection of 12 companies shall be done based on the free-float market capitalization of the companies.
vii. Weightage of each stock in the index is calculated based on its free-float market capitalization such that no single stock shall be
more than 33% and weightage of top 3 stocks cumulatively shall not be more than 62% at the time of rebalancing.
Index Re-Balancing:
Index is re-balanced on semi-annual basis. The cut-off date is January 31 and July 31 of each year, i.e. For semi-annual review of
indices, average data for six months ending the cut-off date is considered. Four weeks prior notice is given to market from the date of
change.
Index Governance:
A professional team manages all NSE indices. There is a three-tier governance structure comprising the Board of Directors of NSE
Indices Limited, the Index Advisory Committee (Equity) and the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee.
DISCLAIMER - All analysis are for educational purpose. it is not a trading or investment advise.
SOURCE - NSE website
#education #markets #equities #stockmarket #technicalanalysis #stocks #investment #trading #india #finance #tourism #fundamentalanalysis #nse #bse #supertrend #alligator #education #bank #banknifty #index
Trading Opportunities for W/B 9-8-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 09-08-21
INTENT
This is a new series of periodical posts where I would share the scrips that I come across and find good to keep on my radar for the next trading session/s. The post may not be a daily feature as it depends on whether I am able to find some opportunities.
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check it out if any of these fit your trade plan.
Whenever possible, a corresponding video would also be shared so that the reader can look at the charts and listen to the commentary as and when needed.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 09-08-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
BPCL
BRITANNIA
COAL INDIA
HDFC
HDFC BANK
IOC
KOTAK BANK
ONGC
RELIANCE
IDFC FIRST BANK
AURO PHARMA
KSCL
NEOGEN
HDFC AMC
Even though on a weekly basis Nifty has made an ATH close, there are several scrips across sectors that have been beaten down and many are below their 200 DMA, WMA as well.
I read it both ways -
Either
There is scope for Nifty to go up further as these scrips would eventually move up.
Or
Nifty may consolidate or drift until the overall market turns bullish for several leading names as well.
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
AUTO
CPSE
ENERGY
FINSERVICES
PVT BANKS
During the week, the universe of my stock search is limited to Nifty, Banknifty and my holdings only. I expand the base for the weekly review so you may not see many names appearing here and may see repeats as well.
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both the lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the set up and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
There is also a video link available in the article. It is related to my son’s video content where he does a weekly wrap-up. You may like to watch the video as well. The contents are different and not always the same.
I hope you are able to make the most of this new initiative.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
07-08-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades / investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
📊 IDFC FIRST BANK 🎯NSE:IDFCFIRSTB
As one can see stock at harmonic PRZ, so you know how to trade on reversal then one can go long with given Stop loss. this might be good swing trade if stock will get support from this harmonic PRZ.
PZR 1:- 54.15
PRZ 2:- 53.80
Stop loss:- 53 ( closing basis) please follow this stop loss strictly if you are trading on this.
Be Independent trader
take charge of your own trades
Learn . Apply . Grow
******whatever charts or levels sharing here are just for educational purpose only not a recommendation. please do your own analysis before taking any trade on them. we are not SEBI registered.